Losing Shine?

Sentiments on India have taken a nosedive. Not so sudden but in pretty short period. Economist has bid good bye to Incredible India. Some have even talked about replacing Indonesia with India in the BRICS group.

Here are the signs:

1. Inflation is high and out of control. It is hurting people like never before. The last time high prices pinched like this was in 1973 - the oil shock and post-71 war. This time around it's oil again and there are global factors at work. Government has limited leeway this time but it has selected bad tools. Jacking up interest rates and drying up credit have clearly been counterproductive. Budget deficit is out of control
2. Rupee is at a historic low. RBI says it cannot protect it against weak fundamentals. So imports, primarily oil, become more expensive. So, inflation is here to stay. Exporters may rejoice - but only so much. Our balance of payments in $185 bn deficit is making it hard
3. Corruption is at historic high - to a point that the idea of India is being called in question. Prosecution does not seem to be going anywhere. Everyone is out after a sojourn in Tihar - some want it to be christened as National Palace. The scale of corruption is unprecedented and reach is widespread. All national resources seem open for loot - coal, minerals, forests, sand, ... At this scale business/economy have been decisively penetrated by the corrupt and the integrity of economy and business is now in question. By vilifying Team Anna government loses its own credibility
4. Government is in paralysis. Army Chief has to write to the PM - not the Defense Minister - talking about alarming deficit of ammunition and equipment. CII has been talking about paralysis in decision making. Azim Premji talks about leaderless government. Ashish Nandy has written - Time to Go, Sir. Reforms are stalled. Non-issues are at center-stage
5. Deaf and dumb governance. You raise concerns they go without a response. Or you would be labelled anti-national, communal, traitor, ridiculed. Democracy has to be about transparent conduct. Here we have people asking who is Anna Hazare to question us? Well, isn't his being a citizen of India enough?
6. Growth rate has plummeted to 6.x % and credit ratings have been downgraded. Part of it is bad economics and part of it is vindictive mindset - opening closed cases, changing laws with retrospective effect
7. Indian businessmen have been investing abroad heavily instead of in India
8. If PM was the only face in the government that inspired some confidence then he does not speak, only protests. He has no answer to all corruption charges except that nobody will be spared. All have been spared as far as eyes can see. CBI is used selectively against opponents. Mulayam and Mayawati will not be touched and Jagan Reddy would be caught double quick. Tihar-returnees have done their time
9. Populist schemes like MNREGA are bleeding money and feeding the corrupt

One could go on and on. But the inevitable question is what should I/we be doing in these times? Can't just sit back. We need to be vocal and say what we do not like. Need to unite/collaborate and help form pressure groups. Influence these groups and the power-that-be. Evolve mechanisms to use RTI and other tools to expose the undesirable and demand transparency and integrity.

Equally, we need to work on constructive activities. Innovation, research, training, mentoring, skills development.

It all requires us to join hands nationally and globally. If not now, then when?

Changing India : Violence and Fissures

The real serious violence I heard and felt about was 1971 war which led to the liberation of Bangladesh. Coming out of school I could see posters all over the place decrying Pakistani leaders and there was the speech by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi asking us to be prepared. Soldiers were inspiration. Lance Naik Albert Ekka of 10 Guards who earned a Param Vir Chakra hailed from a nearby place. They were heady days and we felt to be on the side of the peto bople oppressed and had earned them their freedom. Proud days to be Indians. A but only armed forces were not just the best but the only career choices at the time. Indira Gandhi was hailed as Durga by Atal Bihari Vajpayee.


War brought inflation and by 73 there was disenchantment. JP's student movement started and it had a feel of the moral stature of freedom movement. We were seeking Total Revolution. Worthy goals still.


Emergency followed. And, then, Janata Party came to power.


In 1978 the state government of Bihar annouced 26% reservation for backward castes. What followed was shocking. The world around me was vertically divided in one moment. Friends, teachers, neighbors, people were all to be seen as either backward or forward. For the first time in life I saw such strong emotions that made everyone look to be 'for' or 'against' - no middle grounds at all. This was not the India that the founding fathers envisaged. This was not the Constitution. And all attempts to build an egalitarian India was being thwarted as subsequent events proved.


Naxal movement in 1972 was another one that got crushed temporarily but took deep roots in large areas.


Public discourse was too politically correct. Communal riots were reported to be 'attack by one community over another'. It would be difficult to understand who attacked whom. And then everyone began suspecting the other.


In some ways fissures of one kind got over-reported and under-emphasized others.


Open discussions have always helped in binding the country and its people together.Suppressed discussions have actually made it difficult for Indians themselves to understand India. Extreme biases based on imagined fears keep people apart and suspicious of each others.


And the cure for suspicion is not available with even Haqim Luqman as the saying goes.


When India celebrated turning 50 it was said that India has lost its innocence. The idealism of 1947 has given way to violence, corruption, and divisions.


Loss of innocence is not an altogether bad thing but a complete loss of idealism is - even if replaced by pragmatism.


I believe this loss began in 1975 and it's been a struggle for me to piece it together.

Democracy : India's Achilles' Heel?

Here is an interesting debate Is democracy India's Achilles' heel?.

I liked the format which had enough debate in between and plenty of time to make points. Yet, as debates usually go, a lot of interesting speeches but not enough 'actionable' items.

The gist of arguments for the motion included closed, corrupt, and criminalized democracy causing havoc. The arguments against the motion point to elections at local levels, women's empowerment, India remaining steadfastly democratic in a chaotic region. People talked about China being 3/4 times bigger economy and investors losing faith in India.

Clearly, plenty to think about.

A few months back I sat in protest supporting Anna Hazare. I felt compelled because modern-day corruption has become gigantic in scale (compares with the Central Government's budget), \has become deeply entrenched (babu's ask for percentage, not bahksheesh/gratuity), and is more pervasive. Where could I voice my concern? My MP (Suresh Kalmadi) was in jail himself on charges of corruption! In any case, we barely see our representatives if ever. So, as a citizen of India I barely feel my vote counts or my voice is heard.

Then, I see the India economic momentum faltering. And I ask the question, as many would be asking, how can/should I make a positive contribution? When political discourse is largely rhetorical, and devoid of integrity and media is largely hijacked by corporate houses, when our representatives aren't accountable through their full term I do not feel democracy in my life. 


But I have no birthright to democracy. As I have no birthright to freedom. Freedom has to be earned by being aware and asserting it. So with democratic rights. Then again there is the din of 1.2 billion voices cannot be heard unless the message is worthy and it is presented in palatable ways.


That then is the task ahead of us. As folks lucky to have received education and exposure it is important to articulate and create forums to discuss key issues. Countries go to dogs when countrymen think it has and do nothing about it. 


No short term fixes here. 


Ideas have impact. Ideas change the world. They have. In front of our own eyes. Ideas need momentum to be heard, appreciated, and translated into action.


Ideas on redesigning Indian democracy are needed. Need thoughts. Need action.

India Pakistan Partition

A brilliant documentary by BBC on India Pakistan partition is the immediate prompt to write this. In my experience itself I have seen India's civility and chivalry giving way to an embarrassing smallness in its attitudes. I wish to trace this transformation at a personal level.

Partition was a tragedy through the times - before, during, and after it took place. Yet, it did serve some crucial purposes.

The idea of creating, and substantially owning, a new nation has its intoxicating romance and greed. This bug has bitten many - the proponents of Pakistan in the 1930s and 1940s were the first. A few rich businessmen thought they could create Khalistan. Others want Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland, and so on. The utterly inhuman violence inflicted on innocent common people becomes just a footnote in this thinking. 

The Direct Action Day riots in August 1946 left 4000 dead in Calcutta. It foretold the tragedy that was to follow in the run up to Partition in August 1947. All communities suffered and all excelled in their savagery.

The above documentary shares a story where a small Sikh village chose to behead ALL their own women - own mothers, sisters, daughters, wives - when mobs asked them to pay for peace with one of these women. The Sikh gentleman narrating this chokes. These incidents were repeated across Punjab and elsewhere. Such desperation, such helplessness, such inhumanity!

In hindsight it is clear that the British Viceroy was guilty of trying to hurry it up from June 1948 to August 1947. And our leaders were either ignorant, incapable, or complicit.

Mr M A Jinnah was too secure to fathom the price paid by the innocents for his pursuit of Pakistan. His supposedly brilliant case of why Hindus and Muslims are distinct nations remains a bookish argument that failed all those women and millions upon millions of uprooted and disrupted lives.

Neither Jinnah nor his more recent avatars in the form of promoters of Khalistan, Kashmir, and others realize how dangerous it is to create a nation in a hurry. These nations get hijacked. Pakistan, the 7th largest country in the world, is all but owned by the so-called Establishment. Clinging to invented insecurities, ill-thought hypotheses, and Utopian visions.

Pakistan today is a living proof that those millions of lives got destroyed and disrupted for no worthwhile reason. A nation bestowed with disproportionate share of natural resources and some of the most alive and prosperous parts of India today has the worst social indicators is in the grip of extremism.

Yet, there is one silver lining to this tragic partition. It is said that this could be avoided if Jinnah was made Prime Minister and the demand of dual electorates was accepted. Giving in to the demand of dual electorates would have been a permanent acceptance of an unequal society.  India chose equality for all and it has worked. It would have worked for the undivided India too. But the London-educated barrister speaking Queen's English just did not have the sagacity worthy of the population he set out to lead.

I would like to understand how such violence could erupt. One would have thought that the tragedy of partition would make Indians and Pakistanis wiser. Yet there is tremendous violence all around. I wish to explore these in subsequent posts.

Reflections on Partition and Beyond

As I grew up in parts of Bihar and Jharkhand my education was, without blemish, free from any bias towards religion, caste, gender, color or whatever. It did make me feel an Indian to the core.


Yet, as I grew up India was changing. I learned about the savagery during partition. There were communal riots a lot of times. Then there were divisions related to caste due to reservations. It became clear to me that there are several social and economic dynamics that our education did not prepare us for.


I have always felt great pride in the rich heritage of India. Its great ideas, spirituality, values, arts, literature, humanism, and scholarship. I take equal pride in the idea of modern India that has been so egalitarian in its design, so inclusive, and so tolerant. I truly believe there is nothing like India on earth.


Yet, there are a whole variety of realities in India where fissures, divisions, biases, and narrow attitudes abound in plain sight.


I propose to record my  experiences and thoughts in the period from pre-partition India to modern days covering the full region including Pakistan and Bangladesh.


This story must be recounted by a common man because it includes so much hope and goodness and a huge amount of pain too. I base it on the basis of my personal experiences, readings, and videos/movies. I'll try and add references where I can.


I have often been moved to tears so often just  thinking about it. 


I have come to the conclusion that extreme views and haste in dealing with matters of humans and nations can hurt for centuries. The famous lines by Razmi 


ये जब्र भी देखा है तारीख़ की नज़रों ने 
लम्हों ने ख़ता की थी, सदियों ने सज़ा पाई 


(centuries paid for the mistakes of moments) are so true.


I hope to cover several decades across regions and issues. It's a personally curious exploration and I do look forward to it.

Innovation in China

Much of modern innovation has been from rich countries. And then there is a slew of news of innovation from China - fast supercomputers, fast trains, modern stealth fighters, large dams and so on. It runs deeper as McKinsey report - A CEO’s guide to innovation in China - explains in some detail. 

The GDP of China at $6+ tr is well in the range where developed countries have been for many decades. So financial resources available for creating a broad based ecosystem for innovation do exist. Additionally, institutions, labs, and abundant supply of young minds create a conducive environment for sustained innovation.

At $1.8 tr of GDP much of the above holds for India too. However, we need to make innovation - and by corollary, research - an attractive proposition for individuals and enterprises together. Our economy needs to grow in multiple dimensions and not remain lopsided towards services alone.

Research and innovation need a widespread network where working professionals, academics, full-time researchers can collaborate pursuing bigger goals with bite-sized innovations at massive scale.

The future of nations is a battle of ingenuity.

Exciting times, challenging times, and times to stand up and be counted!

Too Services Heavy?

The current decade is meant to be a 'make-or-break' decade for India. The notion that India has somehow 'arrived' or 'destined' appears to be a gross exaggeration unless some key challenges are overcome. There are challenges that retard and challenges that we need to overcome to become empowered and capable. 

The ones that retard include:

1. Corruption
2. Political disquiet
3. Bureaucratic sluggishness
4. Chronic laziness

Empowerment comes from:

1.  Infrastructure development
2. Energy security
3. Skills development
4. Entrepreneurship

A bigger structural problem is the fact that the productivity of our agriculture has become stagnant for over two decades now, and manufacturing accounts for a relatively small share of the economy. Services alone are unlikely to carry India down the growth path on a sustained basis.

While infrastructure and energy are predominantly issues of capital availability the last two - skills development and entrepreneurship - need massive collaboration of human networks to train and mentor. I look forward to participate in these as PanIIT Alumni initiatives and other collaborations.